Policy Review and Modeling Analysis of Mitigation Measures for Coronavirus Disease Epidemic Control, Health System, and Disease Burden, South Korea.

We reviewed the timeline of key policies for control of the coronavirus disease epidemic and determined their impact on the epidemic and hospital burden in South Korea. Using a discrete stochastic transmission model, we estimated that multilevel policies, including extensive testing, contact tracing, and quarantine, reduced contact rates by 90% and rapidly decreased the epidemic in Daegu and nationwide during February‒March 2020. Absence of these prompt responses could have resulted in a >10-fold increase in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths by May 15, 2020, relative to the status quo. The model suggests that reallocation of persons who have mild or asymptomatic cases to community treatment centers helped avoid overwhelming hospital capacity and enabled healthcare workers to provide care for more severely and critically ill patients in hospital beds and negative-pressure intensive care units. As small outbreaks continue to occur, contact tracing and maintenance of hospital capacity are needed.

Lessons from a COVID-19 hospital, Republic of Korea.

OBJECTIVE: To document the experiences of converting a general hospital to a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) designated hospital during an outbreak in Daegu, Republic of Korea. METHODS: The hospital management formed an emergency task force team, whose role was to organize the COVID-19 hospital. The task force used different collaborative channels to redistribute resources and expertise to the hospital. Leading doctors from the departments of infectious diseases, critical care and pulmonology developed standardized guidelines for treatment coherence. Nurses from the infection control team provided regular training on donning and doffing of personal protective equipment and basic safety measures. FINDINGS: Keimyung University Daegu Dongsan hospital became a red zone hospital for COVID-19 patients on 21 February 2020. As of 29 June 2020, 1048 COVID-19 patients had been admitted to the hospital, of which 22 patients died and five patients were still being treated in the recovery ward. A total of 906 health-care personnel worked in the designated hospital, of whom 402 were regular hospital staff and 504 were dispatched health-care workers. Of these health-care workers, only one dispatched nurse acquired COVID-19. On June 15, the hospital management and Daegu city government decided to reconvert the main building to a general hospital for non-COVID-19 patients, while keeping the additional negative pressure rooms available, in case of resurgence of the disease. CONCLUSION: Centralized coordination in frontline hospital operation, staff management, and patient treatment and placement allowed for successful pooling and utilization of medical resources and manpower during the COVID-19 outbreak.

Intensive Care Unit Capacity and Its Associated Risk Factors During the COVID-19 Surge in the Republic of Korea: Analysis Using Nationwide Health Claims Data.

OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors for intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mechanical ventilator usage among confirmed coronavirus disease (COVID-19) patients and estimate the effects of mitigation efforts on ICU capacity in Korea. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data on profiles and medical history of all confirmed COVID-19 patients in the past 1 year were extracted from the Korean National Health Insurance System's claims database to assess risk factors for ICU admission and ventilator use. We used a time-series epidemic model to estimate the ICU census in Daegu from the reported hospital data. FINDINGS: Multivariate regression analysis revealed male sex, old age, and residing in Daegu city as significant risk factors for ICU admission. The number of patients requiring ICU admission exceeded the bed capacity across all Daegu hospitals before March 9, 2020, and therefore, critically ill patients were transferred to nearby hospitals outside Daegu. This finding was consistent with our prediction that the ICU census in Daegu would peak on March 16, 2020, at 160 through mitigation efforts, without which it would have reached 300 by late March 2020. CONCLUSION: Older age and male sex were risk factors for ICU admission. In addition, the geographic location of the hospital seems to contribute to the severity of the COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU and to the ICU capacity.